Vol. 72/No. 19      May 12, 2008

Petraeus would be replaced in Iraq by his deputy, Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, who will be promoted to the rank of four star general.

The moves keep together the two men most responsible for operations of the “surge” of 30,000 additional U.S. troops to Iraq last year. The promotions integrate the two major fronts of Washington’s “global war on terror”—Iraq and Afghanistan—with the aim of stabilizing the military situation in Afghanistan through an escalation of counterinsurgency operations there.

Petraeus is considered a top expert on counterinsurgency warfare, and the Pentagon hopes he will produce similar results in Afghanistan as those in Iraq.

The U.S. military made progress on the ground during Petraeus’s command in Iraq. Car bombings have decreased; civilian and military deaths are down; former Sunni militias have turned on al-Qaeda, driving it from Anbar and other Sunni areas; and some laws aimed at stabilizing a governing arrangement between competing Sunni and Shiite capitalists forces have been passed. On April 25 the largest bloc of Sunni capitalist parties announced they would end a nearly year-long boycott of the Shiite-led government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and return to posts in his cabinet.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the promotions of Petraeus and Odierno “probably preserves the likelihood of continued momentum and progress” in the region.

There are about 47,000 NATO troops in Afghanistan, of which 19,000 are U.S. troops. As of two months ago, another 11,000 U.S. troops were stationed there under Washington’s command.

During a NATO meeting in April, President Bush pledged that Washington would increase troop deployment to Afghanistan in 2009. Traveling with Bush, Gates pointed to the strong bipartisan support for such a move. “I think no matter who is elected president they would want to be successful in Afghanistan,” Gates said.

Commenting on the promotions of Petraeus and Odierno, leading Democrats have been pressing to escalate the war in Afghanistan and the Pakistan border regions.

“Our ground forces’ readiness and the battles in Afghanistan and against al-Qaeda in Pakistan have suffered as a result of the current costly Iraq strategy,” said Senate Majority Leader Harold Reid.  
 
Al-Sadr and Iran
Among the countries within CENTCOM’s responsibility is Iran. During an April 8 report to Congress Petraeus said Iran represents the greatest long-term threat to a stable Iraq. Washington and the Iraqi government have accused Iran of training “Special Groups” of Shiite militias, including among al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

At the same time, the military success of the surge in Iraq has increased pressure on the Iranian government to collaborate with Washington. According to the private U.S. intelligence outfit Stratfor, Tehran probably intervened on behalf of the U.S.-backed Iraqi government to broker a ceasefire with the Mahdi militia, a serious blow to al-Sadr.

On March 25 Iraqi government troops launched a massive assault on the Mahdi Army in Basra. The militia responded with stepped-up attacks launched from the Sadr City district of Baghdad. At least 700 people were killed, according to the United Nations. Al-Sadr announced a ceasefire April 25.  
 
 
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