Vol. 72/No. 38      September 29, 2008

Prior to the Russian invasion of Georgia in August, which involved some 10,000 soldiers, Moscow had about 1,000 troops in South Ossetia and 2,500 in Abkhazia. This will now increase to about 3,600 soldiers in each region.

Abkhaz officials declared they will sign an agreement establishing Russian military bases, including at its Black Sea ports.

The announcements came soon after the Russian government agreed to allow 200 European Union “monitors” into “security” zones around the two regions in Georgia. London’s Telegaph newspaper reported that the British government will send soldiers and cops, as part of an EU force that will replace Russian troops that are to withdraw from the zones by October 10. The EU forces will not be allowed into South Ossetia or Abkhazia.

Georgian officials said September 13 that Russian forces had pulled out from six checkpoints near the port of Poti.

As one of the pretexts for invading, Moscow said it was defending the national rights of the two provinces. But within days of Russian president Dimitry Medvedev’s “recognition” of independence, South Ossetian official Eduard Kokoity said, “Soon there will be no North or South Ossetia. There will be a united Alania [Ossetia] as part of Russia.”  
 
South Ossetia dependent on Moscow
Kokoity later said he had been “misunderstood.” However, according to Kokoity, the new South Ossetian government will include “specialists” from Russia.

South Ossetia, with a population of about 70,000, is dependent on Russia for 60 percent of its income. It has many mineral resources but little industry.

According to Alexander Cherkasov of the Russian human rights group Memorial, predominantly Georgian villages in South Ossetia are still being torched. After visiting the province Cherkasov told Reuters, “every day we saw new fires.”

“Danger remains not just for Georgian and mixed families,” he said, “but for Ossetian villagers as well from looters who, sensing their impunity, steal and torch not just what belongs to Georgians, but any abandoned home.”

Other than Moscow, only the government of Nicaragua has recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow won a diplomatic victory September 5 when the Collective Security Treaty Organization—which includes Armenia, Belarus, and the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—blamed Georgia for the war. The group stopped short of recognizing independence of the two Georgian regions.

In a slap at Moscow, however, on September 12 the Asian Development Bank—which includes representatives from Japan, China, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—unanimously approved a $40 million low-interest loan to the Georgian government. And the Shanghai Cooperation Organization refused to back the Russian position at an August 28 meeting in Tajikistan.

Moscow does not hide its desire for a new government in Georgia. Russian president Medvedev said Georgian “president [Mikhail] Saakashvili no longer exists in our eyes. He is a political corpse.” Medvedev has also played up reports of actions by opposition parties there. However, there is so far no indication that groups opposed to the Georgian leader are making much progress, although a few of his opponents are calling for new elections.  
 
Washington pledges $1 billion
In early September U.S. vice president Richard Cheney traveled to Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Georgia, where he met with Saakashvili. A day earlier, Washington pledged $1 billion to help Georgia recover from the war. U.S. officials said the package does not include any military assistance, according to the New York Times.

In Baku, Azerbaijan, Cheney said that Washington wants to ensure that “energy export routes are diverse and reliable.” The central Asian nation has vast oil reserves, which Washington would like to see shipped through pipelines that bypass Russia and Iran. The Azerbaijani government of Ilham Aliyev has sought to balance its relations with Moscow, Tehran, and Washington.

The production and transport of oil and natural gas are key anchors of the economies in Russia and much of the Caucasus region. Russia supplies 26 percent of Europe’s oil and 29 percent of its natural gas. But Moscow’s oil wealth has not been able to insulate Russia from the affects of the worldwide economic crisis.

The instability of energy prices along with fallout from the invasion triggered a steep sell-off in the Russian stock market in August along with a drop in the value of the ruble.  
 
 
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