Vol. 73/No. 7      February 23, 2009

Washington plans to nearly double its forces in Afghanistan over the next year. At the same time, a Taliban offensive against the imperialist troops’ main supply route through Pakistan continues to threaten that route’s long-term reliability.

While the likely closure of the Manas air base may not present an insurmountable problem for Washington, it does represent the latest advantage for Moscow in the contest between the two powers over influence in the former Soviet republics surrounding Russia.

The plan to expel U.S. troops is linked to a $2 billion investment and loan package from Moscow according to Vremya Novostei, which first reported the story on January 12.

Gen. David Petraeus, the head of the U.S. Central Command, went to Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, a week later to meet with top government officials. The trip was combined with visits to other Central Asian counties to establish alternative supply routes for troops in Afghanistan.

The Manas airbase, operated by about 900 U.S. troops, was established in 2001. Some 15,000 troops and support personnel and 500 tons of materiel move through the base each month. It also maintains tanker aircraft used for in-flight refueling of combat planes on missions over Afghanistan.

In 2003 Moscow established its own base in Kant not far from Manas.

Washington paid about $63 million a year for use of the Manas base. For the last three years, according to Kyrgyz president Bakiyev, Washington had ignored his government’s request for a higher payment. Bakiyev also said that for the last two years Washington has refused to address the killing of a Kyrgyz worker by a U.S. soldier stationed there.

In December 2008, Washington raised its offer to $150 million per year—after the Taliban increased attacks on the main U.S. and NATO supply route through Pakistan and Washington began exploring alternative routes through Central Asia.

Within weeks, Moscow offered $2 billion to “stabilize Kyrgyzstan’s budget” and develop its hydroelectric power sector and other infrastructure.

During Petraeus’s January 19 visit he offered an additional $64 million per year and, according to Stratfor, a private U.S. intelligence service, a $25 million “signing bonus” for President Bakiyev. Following the general’s visit, Bakiyev said the U.S. base would remain.

On February 2 Bakiyev accepted Moscow’s offer of an additional $300 million low-interest loan, a $180 million debt write-off, and a $150 million grant to top off its deal.

Bakiyev then announced, at a February 3 press conference in Moscow with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, that he had submitted a bill to parliament to evict the base, which would give Washington 180 days to leave. On February 9, Absamat Masaliyev, a member of the Kyrgyz parliament, said the vote on the plan had been delayed until receipt of a $450 million down payment from Moscow.

Kyrgyzstan, the second poorest country in Central Asia, is going through an acute economic crisis. Electricity blackouts, high unemployment, and soaring food prices are fueling opposition to the government.

The pro-U.S. government of former Soviet republic Ukraine was in a similar position last month when Moscow applied the stick, instead of the carrot, shutting off the flow of natural gas to Ukrainian pipelines to bring Kiev to heel.

In what may have been an added incentive from Moscow, Kyrgyzstan was hit with a massive cyber attack originating from Russia in mid-January that knocked most of the country off the Internet for more than a week. The republic of Georgia experienced a similar attack in August during the events surrounding the Russian invasion there.

Bakiyev came to power in 2005 following two weeks of mass protests in what was dubbed the “tulip revolution.” News reports painted the new government as one that would become a close ally of Washington.

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union a number of former Soviet republics and allied countries have joined the NATO alliance, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Washington also moved to establish interceptor missiles in Poland and radar in the Czech Republic as part of its antiballistic missile system designed to reestablish Washington’s nuclear first strike capability.

Moscow has been working to counter these moves. The governments of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan established a military and trade alliance in 1996, known as the Shanghai Five. Uzbekistan joined the alliance in 2001 and it was renamed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In 2007 the alliance conducted joint military exercises in Russia.

The governments of Russia and Belarus established a joint air defense system February 3 comprised of 5 air force units and 10 antiaircraft artillery units.

On February 4 the Moscow-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization decided to establish a joint rapid reaction force of about 10,000 troops functioning under a single command. The organization includes representatives from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

In 2005 the Uzbek government evicted the U.S. base it hosted since 2001. Now the U.S military is considering resuming military cooperation there, AP reported.

The only rail line into Afghanistan from the north goes through Uzbekistan. The Uzbek government gave NATO use of the rail line for troop supplies in 2007, after the European Union eased sanctions on the country. Washington is now negotiating to expand use of the line.

Moscow recently agreed to activate an agreement signed in April 2008 allowing the transit of NATO “non-lethal” supplies through its territory, once Washington details the items it intends to transport. The government of Tajikistan agreed to allow transport through its territory February 6. Washington and the government of Kazakhstan signed an agreement in January for rail transport and purchase of food and other supplies from Kazakhstan.

The U.S. military is also discussing setting up an airbase for the Afghan war in the United Arab Emirates. Washington has been seeking broader alliances in the region to advance their war in Afghanistan, where they face a number of challenges.

NATO’s top commander, U.S. general John Craddock, encouraged European NATO members to negotiate with Tehran for the transport of supplies through Iran. “NATO is looking at flexible, alternative routing. I think that is healthy,” he said February 2.  
 
 
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