Vol. 73/No. 23      June 15, 2009

In April Obama broke with the Bush administration policy and indicated Washington would join Paris, Berlin, London, Moscow, and Beijing (known as the P5) in talks with Tehran over its nuclear program. The P5 governments have been seeking a deal with the Iranian government whereby it would abandon uranium enrichment, a process that can be used to produce weapons-grade uranium. Tehran says its production is for peaceful uses only, to develop the country’s infrastructure.

Even as it pressed for dialogue, the White House reminded Tehran that military action remains a possibility. In a May 22 interview on NBC’s Today Show, U.S. defense secretary Robert Gates said Obama had ordered that existing plans for a U.S. military strike on Iran be updated. “Presidents always ask their military to have a range of contingency plans available to them,” Gates said.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, said on ABC’s This Week that he estimated Tehran would not have a bomb for “one to three years.” But he spoke against a military strike. “I think the unintended consequences of a strike against Iran right now would be incredibly serious… . That’s why this engagement in dialogue is so important. I think we should do that with all options on the table as we approach them.”

Tehran took several steps to establish its military readiness in the meantime. It launched a new, solid propellant missile May 25. According to Gates, “it was a successful test.” The Sejil-2 missile has a range of 1,200 to 1,500 miles, far enough to reach Israel and parts of Europe. Its range is about the same as the Iranian Shahab-3 missile, said an official of the National Security Council. However, its solid-state design makes it easier to transport.

On May 26 the Iranian navy announced it had deployed six warships in international waters including the Gulf of Aden, north of Somalia. “This mission shows our increased capability in dealing with any foreign threat,” said Navy commander Habibollah Sayari.

All four candidates in Iran’s presidential elections, scheduled for June 12, favor continuing development of nuclear power. The two leading contenders are President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Mousavi, who served as prime minister from 1981 to 1989.

Ahmadinejad announced May 25 that he opposed entering talks with the P5 and Washington and said Iran should negotiate only with the United Nations’ nuclear agency. He challenged Obama to a debate at the United Nations.

Mousavi argues that Ahmadinejad’s “extremist” positions have isolated Iran unnecessarily. Joining talks with the U.S. government should not be a “taboo,” he says. “We will not abandon our right to nuclear technology but we are ready to offer assurances that it’s not aimed at building arms.”  
 
 
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