Vol. 73/No. 34      September 7, 2009

A U.S. drone killed Baitullah Mehsud, a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan leader August 5. Shortly afterward, Maulvi Omar, the group’s chief spokesman, was arrested.

The Tehrik-e-Taliban is an alliance of about a dozen Taliban factions in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and parts of the North West Frontier Province. Unlike other Taliban groups whose focus is combating U.S. and allied forces in Afghanistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban has also been waging a fight against the Pakistani government. Since Baitullah Mehsud’s death, the organization has been beset with an internal power struggle and attacks by anti-Taliban militia backed by government air strikes.

In its war against those Taliban forces that oppose it, the Pakistani government has increasingly backed and relied upon private armies based on tribal loyalties and commanded by wealthy individuals.

Since its inception in the 1990s, the Taliban have been a key strategic asset for Islamabad in its contest for influence in Afghanistan. But the Pakistani government lost its ability to control much of the Taliban after pledging support to the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan that began in 2001. The same dynamic holds true for other Islamist armed groups, which Islamabad has backed as irregular forces aimed primarily at countering the Indian government as a regional power.

Rightist Islamist terror has also been a major tool of imperialism in the region. Washington, Pakistan, and the Saudi monarchy were the main patrons of the Mujahideen forces, which fought both to repel the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and to maintain social backwardness and landlord rule. Both al-Qaeda and the Taliban developed out of this experience.

Islamabad’s push into the FATA was preceded by a major offensive in the Swat valley to the north in which many civilians were killed and at least 2.3 million people were forced to flee their homes. Roughly 1 million remain classified as “internally displaced people.”

UN humanitarian coordinator Martin Mogwanja said agencies are preparing for possible Pakistani military operations in South Waziristan and the displacement of 90,000-150,000 more people there.  
 
Islamabad pressed to escalate war
“Pakistan deserves to be credited for its role,” James Jones, U.S. national security adviser, told Fox News August 9. “We hope that we continue the pressure and we don’t let up,” he said. McChrystal expressed concern that Baitullah Mehsud’s death could tip Taliban forces to concentrate more on fighting U.S. forces in Afghanistan than the Pakistani government.

Islamabad’s response, however, may not be as swift or thorough as Washington would like. “One would like the dust to settle first,” said Pakistani Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas. The Pakistani army has been bombing some areas, but has stopped short of a ground invasion, citing equipment shortages. “That may happen in winter, or even beyond, probably,” said Lt. Gen. Nadeem Ahmed.

Following Baitullah Mehsud’s death, Washington launched two other drone attacks in the FATA August 11 and August 21 in South Waziristan and North Waziristan, respectively, killing more than 30 people.

Washington has thus far declined to provide the Pakistani military with its aerial drone technology. However, in cooperation with an Italian company, Islamabad launched production of its own version of the drones August 20.

The Pakistani media commonly cite estimates that 700 civilians have been killed by U.S. drone attacks since the war began, nearly 400 in just the last year. U.S. officials dispute the figures. A survey by the Pew Research Center suggests widespread opposition to the drone strikes in Pakistan.

The survey also suggests a dramatic increase in opposition to the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Pakistan over the last year, with the majority now viewing these groups unfavorably.

In an effort to strengthen government support in the tribal areas, Pakistani president Ali Asif Zardari announced August 14 he will reform aspects of the Frontier Crimes Regulations, the draconian codes set up by the British in 1901 that govern the FATA. It represents a retreat from last year when Prime Minister Yousuf Gilani pledged to abolish the laws altogether.

The reforms will likely allow for the existence of political parties and curb some of the powers of government-paid and appointed maliks (tribal chiefs), who arbitrarily make decisions in criminal cases and civil disputes. It may also place limits on indefinite, arbitrary detentions and “territorial responsibility” under which collective punishment is meted out to members of tribes, including children, for the actions of individuals.

The Taliban gained support in the FATA partly by killing maliks and counterposing its rule and “justice” to that of the government agents.
 
 
Related articles:
Afghan vote highlights limits of U.S. war
U.S. ‘capture and kill’ unit to stay in Philippines
Obama backs ‘renditions’ as torture report released  
 
 
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