Vol. 73/No. 41      October 26, 2009

Islamabad’s last major offensive, which centered in the Swat valley earlier this year, resulted in high civilian casualties, more than 2 million people displaced, and widespread disease and starvation

Top U.S. officials have praised the planned offensive, which they have been pressing for since a central Taliban leader in Pakistan was killed by a U.S. aerial drone in August. At the same time, recent events reveal strained relations between the Pakistani government and Washington over differing approaches to the conduct of the war and what many in Pakistan see as an increasingly arrogant disregard for the country’s sovereignty.

The Pakistani army has amassed two divisions, up to 28,000 soldiers, surrounding Mehsud tribal territory in South Waziristan. “The operation is imminent,” Interior Minister Rehman Malik told Reuters October 11.

The offensive is directed at the Taliban Movement of Pakistan (TTP) in South Waziristan. Taliban forces there are estimated to number between 5,000 and 10,000, including hundreds in allied Uzbek and Arab Islamist forces.

The TTP is a major coalition of Taliban groups in northwest Pakistan waging war against the Pakistani government and against U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan.

The military has said the planned assault will not include areas in South Waziristan inhabited by the Wazir tribe, reported the Dawn newspaper. Taliban forces there support the government’s offensive and have fought to expel foreign Islamist groups. Pakistani forces appear to be using this area as one base from which to launch their assault.

The military began preparing for the ground offensive in June with a sustained campaign of aerial bombings and artillery strikes. Fighter jets also shelled areas in Bajur Agency October 12, a few days after the government’s deadline passed for TTP forces of the Mohmand tribe to lay down their arms.

Those with sufficient means in South Waziristan have reportedly left the area and are demanding the government establish refugee camps. Many others with less resources remain trapped in the future battleground. Because of the closure of the main road, transit fees are reaching 800 rupees ($10) per head, out of reach of “a large number of poor people,” reported Dawn.

The TTP coalition has reorganized since its leader Baitullah Mehsud was killed by a U.S. drone strike August 5. As the assault approaches, Islamist forces have carried out a spate of bombings and other attacks.

Two busy marketplaces in the North West Frontier Province were hit with suicide bomb attacks October 10 and October 12, killing a total of 90 people. The TTP claimed responsibility for a suicide bomb attack on UN World Food Program offices in Islamabad October 5 as well as a bold assault and hostage takeover of the army’s national headquarters in Rawalpindi October 10, which was recaptured the next day.  
 
Kerry-Lugar bill
A recent aid bill passed by the U.S. Congress September 30 has drawn opposition from within the Pakistani government, particularly from the country’s historically dominant military establishment. Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi left for an unscheduled visit to Washington October 12 to express his government’s concerns.

While Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari has defended the Kerry-Lugar bill, it is seen as an affront to the country’s sovereignty and opposed by many in parliament. The bill triples U.S. aid to Pakistan to $1.5 billion per year over the next five years, but places numerous conditions on military aid.

It stipulates that the Pakistani government must end all support for Islamist terrorist groups throughout the country and conduct an effective counterinsurgency war in the FATA and beyond. It makes specific mention of “dismantling terrorist bases” in the city of Quetta, which the Pakistani government has repeatedly insisted do not exist.

The bill also demands that the military not subvert “the political or judicial process of Pakistan” and insists the Pakistani government exercise effective civilian control over the “military budgets, the chain of command, the process of promotion” and “strategic guidance.”

The military has directly ruled the country for more than half of its 62-year history and remains the main pillar of bourgeois rule.

Meanwhile, three U.S. drone attacks in the Waziristan agencies September 29-30 killed at least 21 people, bringing the total reported killed so far this year to more than 480.

In Pakistan there is widespread opposition to the U.S. strikes, which have resulted in hundreds of civilians deaths.

“You have to understand our sensitivities,” Qureshi told Reuters October 7. “The way out that we have suggested is the use of drones, but under our ownership. Transfer technology to Pakistan and then let us use them.”
 
 
Related articles:
U.S. rulers debate Afghan war strategy
U.S. commander in chief gets ‘peace’ prize  
 
 
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