BY ROBERT MILLER
Following the election in Taiwan of incumbent President Lee Teng-hui on March 23, tensions between Beijing and Taipei are easing as rhetoric on both sides tones down. Nevertheless, a highly volatile and unpredictable equilibrium will continue over the question of the reunification of Taiwan with China.
Two days after the election, Beijing ended 18 days of large- scale military exercises designed to warn the government of Taiwan against campaigning for increased international recognition and to signal that a declaration of independence would lead to military action by the Chinese government.
The military exercises included eight days of missile tests. The last round of maneuvers were held just 11 miles from outlying islets held by Taiwan. Some exercises brought Chinese and Taiwanese forces within six miles of each other.
Washington also assembled the largest U.S. naval armada in the region since the end of the Vietnam war, built around battle groups of the aircraft carriers Nimitz and Independence. U.S. naval forces remain in the region as a threat against the Chinese workers state.
Taiwan is regarded as a "renegade" province by China. The government in Taiwan was set up in 1949 by the defeated and fleeing forces of the Nationalist Party following the victory of the Chinese revolution by workers and peasants.
On March 24, Beijing called for a meeting between Lee and China's president Jiang Zemin, and for opening direct air, shipping, and mail links across the Taiwan Strait. Responding to this gesture of conciliation, the government of Taiwan announced the next day a plan to ease its decades-long ban on direct trade.
A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, Shen Guo-fang, however, warned that his government would not drop its option of military intervention in Taiwan should the island's authorities move toward greater independence from the mainland or away from the concept of "one China."
Lee's attempts to secure a seat for Taiwan at the United Nations and a visit to the United States last June infuriated Beijing.
Shen also said that China's "one country two systems" formula, devised for Hong Kong, is appropriate for Taiwan as well. In June 1997 capitalist Hong Kong will return to Chinese sovereignty from British colonial rule.
The China-Taiwan tensions have taken a toll on Taiwan's economy. Some $5 billion in capital was pulled out of Taiwan and the government poured billions into the stock markets in an attempt to maintain prices. A day after the election, Taiwan's newspapers urged Lee to heal the rift with China. In addition, right before the election, Taiwan's top general, Lo Pen-li, called for an end to any "unrealistic advocacy" of independence for the island.
Relations between Washington and Beijing have also been frayed. The U.S. government approved the sale to Taiwan of mobile "Stinger" anti-aircraft missiles, and an advanced targeting and navigation system for fighter jets. Taipei is already in the process of buying 150 U.S.-produced F-16 fighter jets.
Referring to the gathering U.S. armada in the region, U.S. defense secretary William Perry said March 19, "This will remind them [China] that, while they are a great military power, the premier, the strongest military power in the western Pacific is the United States."
The Chinese government lashed out at the White House for meddling in the Taiwan Strait and warned that the People's Liberation Army would "bury" U.S. naval forces in the region if they came too close to China's coastline. "This constitutes a serious encroachment upon China's sovereignty and gross interference in China's internal affairs," foreign ministry spokesman Shen said.
The March 23 Economist reported that "Western analysts have been impressed with the latest Chinese exercises" and opined that China need not land a single soldier on the island to bring Taiwan to its knees. "That might be done with a combination of a naval blockade, the mining of harbors and missile strikes."
Meanwhile, Washington called off a "long awaited" visit to the United States by China's Defense Minister and extended a freeze on new financing for U.S. business deals in China.