BY PATRICK BROWN
AUCKLAND, New Zealand - "[I was] advised the moment I stepped off the plane [from an overseas trip] that the numbers had been gathered," said New Zealand prime minister James Bolger November 4. He was describing that day's "bloodless coup" executed by the parliamentary caucus of the National Party, in which he was replaced as party leader by cabinet minister Jennifer Shipley. Negotiations have begun between the two parties in the coalition government, the majority National Party and its New Zealand First partner, from which Shipley is expected to emerge as prime minister.

Bolger had tried in vain to undercut the looming challenge with a series of statements that began with a speech on October 3 dubbed "springtime for the coalition," in which he advocated a greater private sector role in health, education, welfare, and accident compensation - policies which Shipley and her cabinet supporters "had been advocating behind the scenes," as one commentator wrote.

The reaction to the coup from business circles was immediate and favorable. Profiles of Shipley in the big-business media touted her "strength," "determination," and "unwavering self- belief." One article in the New Zealand Herald noted that Shipley made her name as a "fiscal conservative _ from her stint as Minister of Social Welfare during which she implemented benefit cuts" in 1991.

Stating recently that "New Zealand First has too much influence," Shipley is widely seen as being less inclined than Bolger to make concessions to the weaker coalition partner. The New Zealand First leader, the demagogic Winston Peters, aimed a populist thrust at Shipley as he prepared for negotiations on November 4, saying that his party "will not become captive to any new right-wing agenda."

The leadership challenge came after a week of turmoil on the New Zealand stock market. Share prices first fell by 12.5 percent in one day and then regained 9.9 percent the next, as investors reacted to falls in values on Asian exchanges and related slumps on Wall St. and other major stock and bond markets. Capitalists in this country are increasingly nervous about the currency and stock market crises in a number of economies in Asia, which took nearly 40 percent of New Zealand's exports in 1996. Over the last week some high-profile New Zealand firms announced layoffs. The most prominent was Levene & Co., a furniture store retail chain that employs 600 people. On October 31 the company was placed in receivership.

With her takeover, Shipley is attempting to halt the slide in support for the government. From its first days at the beginning of this year, the coalition government has been marked by a series of scandals and divisions, particularly among the Members of Parliament (MPs) of the rightist New Zealand First Party.

In August the government's authority reached a low point in a referendum on a proposal by the treasurer, New Zealand First leader Peters, for a compulsory savings scheme to replace the present state-funded retirement pension. Shipley was prominent among a number of National Party MPs who campaigned against the proposal, advocating reductions in the pension rather than its replacement.

The trade unions also campaigned against the compulsory savings scheme, while Bolger supported a Yes vote. The referendum was voted down by a crushing 92.4 percent.

A typical opinion poll, conducted in October of this year, recorded that the disapproval rating for the coalition government stood at 90 percent. Thirty percent of those polled said they would vote National, while a mere 2 percent indicated support for New Zealand First. In contrast, the same poll showed the Labour Party as having the support of 52 percent of decided voters, compared with the 28 percent vote it received in the October 1996 parliamentary elections.

The support for Labour reflects the widespread unpopularity of the coalition government. This has been expressed in protests over recent weeks, particularly in response to the cutbacks in the public health system. The health protests have involved thousands in many provincial centers, and they are ongoing. Students recently organized national actions against proposals to reduce the public provision of tertiary education.  
 
 
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