BY CARL-ERIK ISACCSSON
STOCKHOLM, Sweden - German chancellor Helmut Kohl and his
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a defeat in the
September 27 elections to the German Bundestag, the lower house
of parliament.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) received the biggest vote and its candidate, Gerhard Schroder, will now become chancellor.
Workers' resistance to the capitalist economic crisis, including unemployment higher than any time since the 1930s, and the continuing inability of Germany's rulers to incorporate the former East German workers state as part of a stable, prosperous imperialist power were the main factors in Kohl's defeat.
The combined vote for the CDU and its sister party, the Bavaria-based Christian Social Union (CSU) was 35.2 percent, down from 41.4 percent in the elections in 1994. This was the first time in more than five decades that the CDU/CSU received less than 40 percent of the vote in the federal elections.
The Social Democrats got 41 percent of the vote, up from 36.4 percent four years ago. The gap between the two main parties was much bigger than any polls in the last weeks had predicted.
Kohl, who was chancellor for 16 years, has in recent years stood at the head of government attacks on social entitlements such as unemployment benefits and pensions, as well as the attempt to lower sick leave payments to 80 percent of a worker's wages. In demonstrations and rallies against these attacks, a popular slogan has been "Kohl must go." The Social Democrats already had a strong showing compared to CDU in the elections in the western state of Lower Saxony last March, where Gerhard Schroder was elected to head the state government. Another state election, held in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt in May, showed that support for CDU was just 22 percent, only a little more than what the former ruling party in the east, the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS) garnered there. The ultraright German People's Union (DVU) got close to 13 percent in that vote.
In the elections in Bavaria on September 12, it looked like the gap between the Social Democrats and CDU/CSU had closed. The CSU got 52 percent, about the same as they usually get, and the Social Democrats got 30 percent, as in elections in 1994.
Bonn chokes trying to swallow the east
Kohl pointed to the reunification of Germany in 1990, as the
Stalinist bureaucracies that had ruled in Eastern Europe began
to crumble, as the crowning achievement of his chancellorship.
By incorporating the five states of the German Democratic
Republic (GDR) into the Federal Republic of Germany, Kohl aimed
to strengthen the position of German imperialism in relation to
its competitors, particularly in Paris, Washington, and London.
He promised that living standards in the east would rise to the
levels in the west, and conceded to exchange the east German
mark at a one-to-one ratio.
But the last eight years have seen a relative weakening of the German bourgeoisie vis-a-vis its rivals, in large part as a result of the attempt to absorb the noncapitalist workers state in the east. Bonn has transferred some $100 billion a year to eastern Germany since 1990, roughly 5 percent of western Germany's annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 40 percent of the GDP of the former GDR. Most of these funds have been spent on jobless benefits and other social payments, not capital investment.
The German government has shut down much industry in the east, resulting in official unemployment that topped 20 percent earlier this year. The Kohl administration got this figure down to about 17 percent leading up to the vote through a $1 billion government make-work program, but those jobs are expected to end soon.
Since 1990 there have been strikes in both the east and west demanding parity of wages, protesting plant closings, and defending social entitlements.
In the elections in 1990 and 1994, the CDU and Kohl won the most votes among all parties in the eastern states. But this time CDU only got an average of 26 percent of the votes in the east, down 13 percent from last elections, while the Social Democrats increased their vote from 32 percent to 36 percent in the eastern states.
In his campaign Schroder promised to make rebuilding the east a top priority that will be handled directly under him as chancellor.
Nine years after reunification, the former ruling party in the east, the Party of Democratic Socialism, gets around 20 percent of the votes there. Nationally, the PDS share of the votes increased this time compared to last federal elections, reaching the 5 percent threshold needed to be seated in the Bundestag. Half of the parliamentary seats are allotted to each party based on the proportional vote, with the remainder elected directly in each district. Previously, the PDS held three district seats in the Bundestag.
A recent survey shows that two-thirds of those living in the eastern states do not feel as equal citizens in the reunified Germany.
The ultraright National Democratic Party (NPD) and German Peoples Union were expected to get a big vote in the east after their strong showing in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt in May. Nationally, the DVU got 1.3 percent of the votes. In parliamentary elections in the eastern state of Mecklenburgh Vorpommern, also held September 27, none of the ultraright parties that campaigned heavily there won a seat. The DVU was closest, with 3 percent. In the last elections the ultraright won just 1 percent.
Social Democratic coalition government
The Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) will both be
seated in the Bundestag. The Greens won 6.7 percent and will
form a slim majority of delegates together with the Social
Democrats. The FDP, which had been a coalition partner in
Kohl's CDU/CSU government, won 6.5 percent. The FDP had earlier
been a coalition partner in Social Democratic governments.
In the last weeks before the elections, as the gap between the Social Democrats and CDU was estimated to narrow, speculations grew that Schroder would form a "grand coalition" government with CDU. Since the election results give the Social Democrats and the Greens a clear majority, a grand coalition is less likely. The SDP and Greens announced they will start coalition negotiations October 2.
Social Democrats in governments
Schroder's campaign focused a lot on high unemployment,
which now stands at 10.6 percent nationally, or more than 4
million people. Last winter it was more than 4.5 million but
the make-work programs in the east to gain votes, seasonal
economic changes, and an upturn in the business cycle have
lowered the number slightly. As elections are over and the
winter is approaching, joblessness will grow again.
Schroder has had a procapitalist campaign with vague promises of jobs and reforms. He has been compared to Anthony Blair, who heads the Labour Party government in the United Kingdom. Social Democrats are now in governments in 13 of the 15 countries within the European Union. This reflects the failure of the traditional bourgeois parties to deal the workers and farmers in Europe the same blows as they have been dealt in the United States, as well as the increasing resistance among working people in Europe.
Next summer the German government will move from Bonn to Berlin, closer to the region of central and eastern Europe that German imperialism has always considered its "backyard." This move symbolizes the shift in German imperialism's interests and alignment to the east and within the West, from Paris to Warsaw and London. Schroder's first trip after his election as chancellor was to Paris, the capital that Kohl always visited first. But he is also rapidly planning visits to London and Moscow.
The economic crisis in Russia, and lack of any motion toward restoring capitalist rule there, has a particularly big impact on the German bourgeoisie. By the middle of this year, German banks were owed $30.5 billion by the government and other institutions in Russia - more than four times the outstanding Russian loans of U.S. banks and more than 40 percent of all Russia's debt to foreign banks. Some 14 percent of the capital of German banks is exposed to loans to Russia.
At the end of August 1998, Moscow delayed interest payments on a portion of this debt for the first time, and the Russian government is now threatening to stop payment altogether on some foreign loans, unless new ones are offered.
As the German elections are over, rifts between the main imperialist powers in the European Union will come to the fore. This fall negotiations over the European Union's budget for the coming years and preparing the enlargement of the EU to the east, will be on the agenda. On Jan. 1, 1999, the single currency will start.
Carl-Erik Isacsson is a member of the Metalworkers union.