Vol. 71/No. 48      December 24, 2007

The argument that Iran’s nuclear program is aimed at producing atomic bombs has been Washington’s principal justification for economic sanctions and a host of military threats against that country.

The NIE, a report based on the consensus of all 16 U.S. spy agencies, underscores that a U.S. military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities is not on the agenda. The U.S. rulers’ continue to mount diplomatic and economic pressure against Tehran aimed at replacing the present regime with one that will be more pliant toward Washington’s interests in the region.

“We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium (HEU) for a weapon is late 2009, but that this is very unlikely,” reads the report. “We judge with moderate confidence Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough HEU for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 time frame.”

At a news conference following the report’s release, President George Bush made it clear that the U.S. drive to block a nuclear Iran would continue. “Look, Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous, and Iran will be dangerous, if they have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon,” he said.

In October, Bush charged that Tehran’s “aggressive pursuit of a military nuclear program” posed the danger of “World War III.” The White House has consistently said it would not rule out the use of force to stop Iran’s enrichment of uranium.

Tehran has replied that its nuclear program, including the enrichment of uranium, is aimed at peaceful development of the country’s infrastructure. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the NIE report vindicated his country.

According to the New York Times, Bush told reporters that in 2003 Washington was offering a let-up in sanctions and support in joining the World Trade Organization if Tehran gave up uranium enrichment. “What changed was the change of leadership in Iran,” he said, referring to the 2005 election of Ahmadinejad as president. “We had a diplomatic track going, and Ahmadinejad came along and took a different tone.”

U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said Washington would continue to press for more UN sanctions against Iran, despite the NIE findings. “We are going to continue our work on a UN Security Council resolution,” Rice said while at a NATO meeting in Brussels.

The Security Council has already imposed sanctions on Iran twice. Belgian foreign minister Karel De Gucht said that European Union (EU) and NATO foreign ministers agreed at the Brussels gathering to continue pushing for sanctions to pressure Tehran to stop uranium enrichment. EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana reiterated this position, saying, “the EU position has not been changed and there is no question of it changing.”

Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met with Rice during the NATO meeting and later told the press that Russia favors a continuation of negotiations with Iran aimed at getting it to end the nuclear program. Agenzia Italia, the Italian news agency, reported that Russian president Vladimir Putin urged Iran to freeze all enrichment of uranium.

Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert said the NIE would not alter his government’s goal of ending Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. Admiral Michael Mullin, head of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, flew to Tel Aviv to meet with Israeli officials about Iran’s nuclear program following the report’s release.

Meanwhile, Democratic rivals of presidential contender Sen. Hillary Clinton sought to capitalize on the NIE to attack her for voting to label the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a branch of the Iranian military, a terrorist organization.

Clinton was one of 29 Democrats to vote in favor of the non-binding Senate resolution passed 76-22 in September. Clinton defended her vote and said she favored “aggressive diplomacy.”  
 
 
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