Vol. 72/No. 3      January 21, 2008

Musharraf, once a protector of the Taliban regime, has been a key Bush administration ally in the wake of the overthrow of the Taliban by the U.S. military in 2001. Pakistani and U.S. military forces conduct coordinated operations against Islamist militias concentrated in tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

The push for greater covert action in Pakistan is part of a broad reassessment of U.S. policy in that country following the December 27 assassination of Bhutto. No one has been arrested and Pakistan’s opposition has charged Musharraf with a cover-up and a possible hand in her killing. The Pakistani government postponed parliamentary elections until February 18.

Bush held a meeting with his top cabinet and security advisors January 4 to discuss various options, reported the New York Times.

Currently some 50 U.S. Special Operations forces have limited authority to conduct missions in Pakistan, mainly aimed at capturing or killing Osama bin-Laden and other leaders of al-Qaeda.

Options being discussed by the Bush administration include loosening restrictions by Pakistan’s government on the CIA’s authority to strike selected targets provided by Pakistani security agencies. The CIA could also be allowed to ask for help from U.S. military forces in the area or deputize some forces of the Special Operations Command to act under its authority, according to press reports.  
 
‘Could result in backlash’
“In the past,” the New York Times said, “the [Bush] administration has largely stayed out of the tribal areas, in part for fear that exposure of American-led operations there would so embarrass the Musharraf government that it could further empower his critics, who have declared he was too close to Washington.

“Even now, officials say, some American diplomats and military officials … argue that American-led military operations on the Pakistani side of the border with Afghanistan could result in a tremendous backlash and ultimately do more harm than good. That is particularly true, they say, if Americans were captured or killed in the territory.”

A Pakistani foreign ministry spokesman dismissed press reports that Washington might ask for wider military latitude in Pakistan. He said only Pakistani military and security forces could take action in Pakistan.

The Bush administration also hopes that Pakistan’s new army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, will support an expanded role for U.S. troops. Kayani has received extensive training at U.S. military schools. Early in his career, he was an aide to Bhutto when she was prime minister. He later headed Pakistan’s intelligence service.

Stratfor, a private U.S. intelligence outfit, said that “Musharraf and Kayani may not be on the same page as far as how to deal with the issue of the elections.”

Should the opposition lose the election to Musharraf, Stratfor predicted “[a] much more organized and sustained version of the rioting that took place in the aftermath of Bhutto’s assassination.” Stratfor said, “Musharraf is well aware of this potential scenario, which is why he has specifically noted that the army will remain deployed even after the elections and that no one will be allowed to engage in civil disturbances. But this assumes that the army chief will order troops to open fire on unarmed demonstrators … . Kayani is unlikely to play with fire to salvage the future of one man, even if it is the president.”

Leaders of Pakistan’s main capitalist opposition parties have stepped up efforts to gain leverage heading into the February 18 parliamentary elections. Musharraf’s opponents sharply criticized the postponement of the elections in January but say they will participate. Leaders of Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) have called for an interim government to oversee the elections. PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted as prime minister by Musharraf in 1999, is currently prohibited from running for office.

Conflicting statements by the government have undermined its claim that Bhutto died after striking her head against her vehicle following a bomb explosion. In a CBS interview Musharraf said that she might have died from a bullet wound. The Pakistani government has blamed the killing on al-Qaeda.

PPP leaders have announced that should their party win a majority in the election, they will ask the United Nations to conduct an investigation into Bhutto’s assassination. In an attempt to deflect suspicion of his government’s involvement in Bhutto’s killing Musharaff has asked London’s police force, Scotland Yard, to conduct an investigation.  
 
 
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