Vol. 72/No. 49      December 15, 2008

Under the agreement, all U.S. troops are to withdraw from Iraqi cities by June 30, 2009, and from the country by Dec. 31, 2011. The current UN mandate for the more than half-decade-long military operation expires in December.

If the Iraqi government were to decide to terminate the agreement, it would remain in effect for one more year.

Trained Iraqi military troops and special forces, which were effective in fighting Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia earlier this year, now total 265,000. The police force stands at more than 290,000.

As a result of Washington’s progress in Iraq, insurgent activity has declined. Average monthly U.S. troop fatalities are down this year to 25 per month from an average of about 70 in 2004-2007.

Nearly 100,000 civilians have been killed as a result of the U.S.-led war in Iraq since it began in 2003, according to statistics compiled by the Iraq Body Count Web site. While still high, less than 600 civilians were reported killed each month since July this year, down from a monthly average of 2,025 last year.

In November, the U.S. military moved to reduce the number of combat brigades in Iraq from 15 to 14 as part of a planned troop reduction of 8,000 announced by President George Bush in September. At least one combat brigade originally slated to go to Iraq will be deployed to fight the war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, where Washington has begun shifting more attention and resources.

Iraq’s parliament voted 149 to 35 for the agreement on November 27. Some 14 members of parliament abstained and 77 were not present.

As part of garnering support, parliament scheduled a referendum on the deal for June 30, 2009—six months after it goes into effect.

Of the 35 legislators who voted against the agreement, 30 belong to the faction led by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Al-Sadr declared three days of mourning and his supporters organized demonstrations.

Iraq’s presidential council approved the deal December 4.

One concession granted by Washington was the end of absolute immunity from Iraqi law for U.S. troops. The pact provides that U.S. soldiers can be tried by Iraqi courts for “grave premeditated felonies,” provided they occurred outside U.S.-controlled areas and while off duty—a status left up to the U.S. military to determine. Any U.S. soldier arrested and accused by Iraqi officials would be turned over to U.S. custody within 24 hours but made available to Iraqi investigators.

Control of Iraqi airspace is officially turned over to the Iraqi government, as well as areas and facilities where U.S. forces have withdrawn. U.S. forces are not to use Iraqi soil for launching attacks against neighboring countries.

The agreement requires the U.S. military to obtain warrants from Iraqi authorities before searching Iraqi homes, “except in the case of actual combat operations.” It stipulates that prisoners are to be turned over to Iraqi authorities within 24 hours of arrest. Some 17,000 Iraqi prisoners are in U.S. custody without Iraqi arrest warrants.

An accompanying agreement approved by parliament November 27 lays out the long-term framework for Baghdad’s close political and economic ties to U.S. imperialism, with expanded U.S. trade and direct investment in Iraq’s agriculture, natural resources, infrastructure, and industries.

As part of the pacts, Washington will back Baghdad in seeking cancellation of debt to other countries incurred under the government of Saddam Hussein, and support Iraq becoming a member of the World Trade Organization.

Before the vote, the Iranian government pressed Ali al-Sistani, the leading Shiite religious authority in Iraq, to come out against the pact. But al-Sistani steered clear of taking a stance, saying only it was up to the country’s elected politicians to decide. Following the decision, through an aide, al-Sistani came out in support of the referendum while mildly criticizing the pact for providing “no guarantee that Iraq will have its sovereignty recognized by other countries.”

Other high-ranking Shiite clerics outside Iraq followed Iran’s lead and opposed the pact, including al-Sistani’s counterpart in Lebanon, Sayyed Mohammad Hussein Fadlullah, who condemned the agreement for “giving the occupation a legitimacy for three years.”

The Iranian government toned down its criticism leading up to the vote. Following the approval, some leading religious and political authorities in Iran, including the head of the Guardian Council and the head of the judiciary, made positive statements about the Iraqi parliament’s decisions.

Other clauses in the pact refer to Washington’s pledge to back the Iraqi government in defending its “territorial integrity” and to “reinforce national reconciliation within the framework of a united and federal Iraq.” These clauses could be used in opposing any moves by the oppressed Kurdish nationality toward independence.

One day after parliament voted for the agreement, Hussain Shahristani, Iraq’s oil minister, declared that oil contracts signed by the Kurdish regional government with foreign oil companies were illegal and not recognized by the central government.

The Kurdish regional government and Shiite-led central government in Baghdad have often clashed sharply over control of oil.
 
 
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