Vol. 77/No. 47      December 30, 2013

The relationship of forces shifted in favor of the Assad government after a deal was reached between Moscow and Washington to work with Damascus to dismantle its stockpile of chemical weapons, after the regime was accused of carrying out an Aug. 21 sarin gas attack that killed hundreds of civilians.

Since then, pro-Assad forces, including the recently formed paramilitary National Defense Force, Hezbollah soldiers sent from Lebanon, irregular fighters drawn from Shiite groups in Iraq and Revolutionary Guard troops from Iran, have made some significant gains.

Since mid-October these forces have captured Safira and Tel Aran, two towns southeast of Aleppo, and retaken a military base near Aleppo’s airport. In the suburbs south of Damascus, the capital city, another five towns are back under government control.

Government forces continue to bombard towns under siege, targeting civilian areas sympathetic to the opposition. Syrian government aircraft pounded areas near the southern border with Jordan and in Aleppo Dec. 16. Barrel bombs — steel barrels packed with explosives — dropped on several Aleppo neighborhoods killed at least 76, including 28 children, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. A similar attack in the northern town of Al-Bab Nov. 31-Dec. 1 killed 46 people.

In face of these gains, Syrian government officials have made clear that Assad has no intention of surrendering power as part of any deals reached at a Jan. 22 “peace” conference set for Geneva, Switzerland, and that he may run again in elections scheduled for mid-2014.

“Assad’s survival may not be the worst scenario for Syria,” is how a Nov. 19 Wall Street Journal editorial described the view of the Barack Obama administration.

“Washington and Russia appeared to be working in tandem on a transitional framework,” Reuters reported Dec. 17, in which Assad’s military and intelligence apparatus would “rally a united fight against al-Qaeda with moderate rebel brigades, who would be invited to join a restructured military.”

War grew out of protest movement

Opposition forces rallied under the banner of the Free Syrian Army, which took control of parts of northern Syria, including areas around Aleppo, the country’s largest city, and some suburbs of Damascus.

Well-armed groups allied with al-Qaeda have entered the country, seeking to wrest territory amid the fighting. They have increasingly clashed with the Free Syrian Army.

The Syrian Observatory puts the total death toll in the war at almost 126,000. On average more than 5,000 have been killed per month since July 2012. Nearly 7 million people — one-third of the country’s population — are in urgent need of food and medical assistance. Parts of the country have recently been hit by a polio outbreak.

The U.N. estimates there are 6.5 million people in the country who have been driven from their homes. Another 2.3 million Syrian refugees have fled to nearby countries — 131,000 to Egypt, 207,000 to Iraq, 540,000 to Turkey, 567,000 to Jordan and 842,000 to Lebanon. They face limited resources, stiff competition for jobs and are often scapegoated for deteriorating economic and social conditions in those countries.

In Lebanon, Syrians now comprise 20 percent or more of the country’s population, and the government in Beirut is seeking to halt any further immigration. It has decided not to house refugees in formal camps, fearing they will stay, and tented settlements, like those in Bekaa Valley, are being pressured to close.

Nearly 6,500 refugees have crossed over the Turkish border to Bulgaria, the poorest nation in the European Union, mostly hoping to make it to Germany or Sweden. In Bulgaria, one of the entry points to Europe, they have been targeted by the ultrarightist Ataka party, which seeks to grow by demanding the Syrians be driven out, saying “Bulgaria for the Bulgarians.”

Splintering of opposition forces

The one exception to this overall trend is in the northeast, where Kurdish militias have pushed both Assad and the al-Qaedists out, extending their control over most of Hasakah province. These gains are part of a broader rise in the struggle of the Kurdish people, an oppressed nationality of some 30 million concentrated in Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria.

Over the Dec. 7-8 weekend the Islamist Front took over key Free Syrian Army warehouses, near the Turkish border. Among the items seized were aircraft and anti-tank weapons, 50,000 military rations, pickup trucks and communications equipment, according to a U.S. State Department official and the Syrian Observatory.

Conflicting accounts about the incident were reported in the media, but each pointed to the declining power and influence of the FSA. One said FSA Gen. Salim Idris was forced to flee the site. Another that the FSA had asked the Islamic Front to defend the premises against fighters from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.

In response, Washington and London suspended delivery of nonlethal aid to north Syria and have opened talks with the Islamic Front.

“The shift in Western priorities, particularly the United States and Britain, from removing Assad toward combating Islamist militants is causing divisions within international powers,” Reuters reported Dec. 17.

The strengthening of the Assad government has been a gain for Moscow, which along with the Iranian government has been the main ally of the Syrian regime. The same development has angered Washington’s allies in the region, particularly the monarchy in Saudi Arabia, which has supplied the FSA with $400 million in arms and equipment. The Saudi kingdom has also expressed outrage at the Barack Obama administration’s recent overtures toward negotiations with Tehran, which has helped stabilize the regime there.

“We’ve seen several red lines put forward by the president, which went along and became pinkish as time grew, and eventually ended up completely white,” Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, the country’s former intelligence chief, said Dec. 15, speaking at a World Policy Conference.

With the emergence of the Islamic Front, Saudi Arabia now seeks to arm one of its wings called Jaish al-Islam, or Army of Islam, according to the Wall Street Journal.  
 
 
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