Vol. 79/No. 22 June 15, 2015
First, the U.S. administration is driving to complete a deal with Tehran to slow down its nuclear program and aid Washington in attacking Islamic State, in return for phasing out sanctions against Iran. Obama’s aim is to open possibilities for Washington and Tehran to work together to stabilize the region.
Second, the Obama administration is pursuing a relationship with the Russian government that includes collaboration to strengthen the Syrian government’s role in fighting the Islamist forces that both Washington and Moscow oppose. To get that, the president is willing to back off sanctions against Russia and accommodate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s insistence on maintaining a territorial buffer in Ukraine and the Baltics.
The erosion of political stability and U.S. influence in Iraq over the past 25 years are at the root of the shift. After years of U.S. bombings, invasions, special forces operations and attempts to cobble together functioning political alliances, Iraq is less unified than ever. Kurds have established an autonomous regional government in the northeast and the south is controlled by Shia forces. In the Sunni western area, U.S.-backed Iraqi government troops have been routed by Islamic State and driven out of major cities, most recently Ramadi. Over the recent period Washington has had tacit collaboration with Shiite militias backed by Tehran, which along with the Kurdish forces have been successful in pushing back Islamic State.
To advance these goals, Obama is pressing the Israeli government to accept the deal with Tehran and come to a settlement for a Palestinian state.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran’s nuclear program, signed April 2 by officials from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, China, European Union and Iran, is to be finalized by June 30.
The plan includes Iran’s commitment to cut the number of its centrifuges, reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium and not enrich beyond the level used to generate nuclear energy for 15 years. The deal ostensibly extends to one year the time it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for a weapon, for the accord’s 10-year duration.
Tehran’s compliance is to be monitored by inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
In an April 5 New York Times interview, Obama said that the U.S. must be prepared to take some risks to reach a diplomatic arrangement that “ushers a new era in U.S.-Iranian relations.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has campaigned against any agreement that doesn’t include the total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, calling it “an existential threat to the state of Israel.”
Obama says there is no way a deal can be struck with Tehran on that basis, and Tel Aviv has to realize the stakes and get on board.
U.N. resolution on Palestinian state
As part of the foreign policy reorientation, Washington, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, is unlikely to veto a resolution recognizing statehood for Palestine the next time it comes to a vote — a shift from its previous stance that Palestinian statehood can only be achieved by negotiations with Israel.In a May 19 New York Times op-ed, Henry Siegman, former senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that a two-state agreement “can only be achieved if the United Nations Security Council, with strong support from the United States, presents the parties with clear terms for resumed peace talks that will produce an agreement within a specified time frame.”
“America has made an unconditional commitment to Israel’s security — and rightfully so,” Siegman said. “But that commitment is in danger of eroding if the Obama administration continues to prevent the Security Council from pursuing a two-state agreement.”
Last October the U.K. Parliament passed a motion calling on the government to “recognize the state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel, as a contribution to securing a negotiated two state solution.” Iceland and Sweden have recognized Palestine and on May 13 the Vatican followed suit.
“Intervention of the U.N. and the superpower countries is important to convince Israel to reach a peaceful settlement,” Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah told the Washington Post May 31. “We have had certain assurances from the United States that after the Iranian deal, they will resume negotiations between us and the Israelis,” he added.
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