Vol. 79/No. 24 July 13, 2015
The stakes for the ruling class go far beyond trade. The big project Obama aims to accomplish in the last stretch of his presidency is a set of trade and regulatory agreements to protect U.S. imperialism’s interests in a world of growing capitalist economic crisis.
After the bloody slaughter of World War II the victorious imperialist powers, above all Washington, imposed economic, political and military relations that remained largely stable for decades, based on expanding production and the U.S. dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency.
These relations are coming apart. From Asia to the Middle East, Cuba to Europe, U.S. imperialism faces political, economic, social and military challenges.
Falling profit rates have led to declining investment in production and productive capacity, an explosion in speculation and fictitious capital, increased capitalist competition and a weakening of all imperialist currencies.
At the same time, U.S. rulers face growing capitalist competition from China and, to a lesser degree, India and elsewhere.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership, involving the imperialist governments of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the United States, as well as Brunei Darussalam, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, could potentially encompass a third of world trade.
Like other imperialist-organized trade pacts, it will lower some tariffs while maintaining many protectionist measures, to the advantage of the strongest capitalist powers involved.
Attempt to counter Beijing
Above all, U.S. rulers see the TPP as a counterbalance to Beijing. “China wants to write the rules for the world’s fastest-growing region,” Obama said in his State of the Union speech in January. “Why should we let that happen? We should write those rules.”In an April 5 commentary, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers sharply criticized Washington’s recent moves blocking Beijing as well as the Indian government from playing a role in the International Monetary Fund commensurate with their economic weight.
This contributed to the Chinese government’s decision to initiate the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which will operate alongside and often in competition with the World Bank and others to fund infrastructure development projects. Washington and Tokyo have so far stayed out, while all of the major imperialist powers in the European Union are participating. The Australian government announced June 24 it would sign on as the 57th member country of the bank.
Summers argues that this decision made it harder, not easier, for Washington to maintain its standoff against Beijing’s growing weight.
This “may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system,” Summers wrote. “As long as one of our major parties is opposed to essentially all trade agreements and the other is resistant to funding international organizations, the US will not be in a position to shape the global economic system.”
The trade union officialdom has spearheaded a campaign against the TPP, arguing largely on nationalist and class-collaborationist lines for “protecting American jobs,” particularly in manufacturing.
In mid-June many Democrats in the House of Representatives initially broke with Obama to block fast-track authority, which allows the White House to present this and other trade deals for an up-or-down vote with no amendments by Congress. After political maneuvering, however, fast track passed both the House and Senate and is now awaiting Obama’s signature.
The fast-track authority applies not only to the TPP, but other deals over the next six years that are part of the U.S. rulers’ attempt to better their position in the world. The largest currently being negotiated are the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between Washington and the European Union and the Trade in Services Agreement, which would regulate services ranging from telecommunications to distribution, “representing 75 percent of the world’s $44 trillion services market,” according to the U.S. Trade Representative website.
Military ‘rebalancing’ in Asia
The TPP negotiations are intertwined with what the Obama administration describes as its “pivot” or military “rebalancing” in Asia. Washington is increasing its rotation of troops, fighter jets, and bombers through the military base in Darwin, on Australia’s northern coast, aiming to prevent Beijing from being able to someday carry out a naval blockade of shipping lanes.During an April visit to Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promoted both the TPP and increased military collaboration. Tokyo will help fund an upgrade of the U.S. military base in Guam, is deepening military ties to India and Australia and is seeking to use Japanese military forces beyond what the U.S.-drafted constitution imposed after World War II allows.
Philippine President Benigno Aquino announced June 5 that Tokyo and Manila are opening talks on giving Japanese military forces access to bases in the Philippines.
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