Vol. 79/No. 13 April 13, 2015
Obama faces multiple challenges to his foreign policy throughout the region: a tacit alliance with Iran in combating Islamic State in Iraq, and a similar alliance with the regime of Bashar al-Assad in fighting this group in Syria; growing strength of Kurdish fighters throughout the region; efforts to reach an accommodation with Iran on its nuclear program; a disgruntled reaction from Saudi Arabia and Egypt; and opposition to his course from the reelected government of Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv.
As Washington pulled its forces out of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, backed by a number of other predominantly Sunni, Middle Eastern regimes, launched airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen March 26. Egypt sent warships and threatened the use of ground forces.
At the same time, President Obama sought to take the mantle of a war president, ordering massive bombing of Islamic State positions in the city of Tikrit, Iraq. His hope is this will make it easier to counter criticism if he can reach a “reset” with Iran, trading relief from economic sanctions for an agreement where Iran will not develop nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.
Saleh, who had ruled Yemen for 33 years, was forced out of power by mass popular protests in early 2011 as part of the “Arab Spring.” Hadi, vice president under Saleh, became president in February 2012 in an election where he was the only candidate.
Washington worked with both the Saleh and Hadi governments in operations against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP controls areas in central and southern Yemen and has used the country as a base for attacks around the world. Since 2009 the CIA and Pentagon have carried out dozens of drone strikes and special operations raids against al-Qaeda forces in Yemen, often killing civilians and bystanders, earning the anger of many residents.
The Houthis, who are Shiite Muslims based in northern Yemen, have waged a rebellion for years, first against Saleh and then Hadi. In recent months they allied with Saleh and have received arms and advisers from Tehran. In January the Houthis took over Sanaa. Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia as Houthi forces advanced on Aden March 25.
Worried about growing Iranian influence in Yemen, Syria and the region, as well as Obama’s efforts to reach a quid pro quo with Iran, the Sunni Muslim Gulf monarchies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, as well as the governments of Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, Sudan and Turkey, backed the Saudi assault. A summit of Arab government officials in Egypt announced they were forming a joint military force to intervene in the region.
Washington is now providing targeting information from surveillance flights over Yemen, as well as bombs and aerial refueling.
Saudi-led naval ships blockaded Yemeni ports March 30 and Saudi planes reportedly hit a camp for displaced civilians, killing at least 29, reported the Wall Street Journal. Even before the recent fighting, the United Nations reports 334,000 people have been driven from their homes in Yemen.
Obama’s ‘reset’ with Iran
Intervention in Yemen by the rulers of Saudi Arabia and other Sunni monarchies is in part a reaction to Obama’s attempts to carry out a “reset” of Washington’s relations with Tehran.“Saudi Arabia simply cannot allow Iran under any scenario to use its ‘near status’ as a nuclear power to expand its influence and prestige,” wrote Nawaf Obaid, a former adviser to several Saudi government officials, in an op-ed in the March 27 Washington Post. “Whatever deal the Iranians get, the Saudis will pursue an equivalent program to reach nuclear parity.”
The White House is still in what some media outlets call a “Bibi panic,” using the nickname of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over his recent election victory and his scathing March 3 speech to the U.S. Congress denouncing the negotiations with Iran. Getting a deal with Tehran is a centerpiece of Obama’s foreign policy strategy.
The U.S.-Iran negotiations now involve top officials from France, Britain, Germany, the European Union, Russia and China. The March 31 deadline has been pushed back while talks continue.
With the blowing up of his strategy in Yemen, and the Iran deal under fire, Obama is more prone to lashing out unpredictably to try to show that he is capable of defending U.S. interests by any means necessary. That’s what is behind what observers described as U.S. “carpet bombing” in Tikrit.
Washington has been in a tacit alliance with Iranian-backed Shiite militias, who have a long record of sectarian violence against Sunni villagers throughout Iraq, in the battle against Islamic State there. U.S. officials said the Iraqi army should take the lead in the battle for Tikrit and that they wanted the militias to pull back. But Baghdad has neither the forces nor the fighting spirit for street-to-street fighting.
Leaders of the Shiite militias initially said they would withdraw in opposition to the U.S. involvement in Tikrit. Most have not left, however, and intend to resume fighting.
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