The reactionary capitalist regime in Tehran and its ally Hamas believed the pogrom they launched against Jews in Israel Oct. 7, 2023, was a major victory and would pave the way for more attacks, the ultimate destruction of Israel and the expulsion or annihilation of the Jews in the Middle East — another Holocaust.
The Hamas thugs killed 1,200 people, took 250 hostages and raped and mutilated dozens of women, the largest anti-Jewish pogrom since World War II. But Tehran underestimated the people of Israel — Jews, Arabs, Christians, Muslims and Druze. They fought off the Hamas death squads and then took the offensive, despite nonstop pressure from the Joseph Biden White House to stop the war. They eliminated most of Hamas’ fighting capacity, killed half of its trained thugs, dismantled Hezbollah’s leadership and destroyed most of its missiles in Lebanon, and took out Tehran’s main air defenses.
These blows also opened the door for the uprising that overthrew the tyrannical regime of Moscow- and Tehran-backed Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
But the regime in Tehran is driving ahead to produce nuclear weapons, a deadly threat to Israel and to working people throughout the region. And it is still infiltrating advanced weapons to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, and encouraging the Houthis in Yemen to keep up their ballistic-missile attacks on Israel.
Bartarhina, a popular news site in Iran, noted that the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad dictatorship “began on Oct. 7,” and that “by weakening Hezbollah” Israel ensured “Assad’s defensive wall collapsed with one kick.”
Hezbollah was forced to accept a ceasefire with Israel in Lebanon Nov. 27 and pull back its operatives from Syria. Then Syrian rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a bourgeois group with origins in Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and given the green light by the Turkish government, swept from Idlib province in northwest Syria to Damascus. The soldiers of the Assad dictatorship dropped their weapons and abandoned their posts as the rebels advanced.
The overthrow of the regime was a big blow to Moscow. Syria is home to the only Russian naval base on the Mediterranean Sea and to a major air base. Convoys of Russian troops, escorted by Tahrir al-Sham, have been abandoning Moscow’s bases inside Syria and heading to the coast, likely on their way out of the country.
Millions celebrate Assad’s fall
With the boot of the Assad tyranny off their necks, hundreds of thousands of people in cities across Syria turned out for joyful celebrations. Some among the millions who fled Syria to escape the regime are returning to rebuild their lives. Many have high expectations, while still wary of what the new government will do.
The Assad regime brutally crushed a popular uprising that began in 2011. In the absence of a working-class leadership, contending armed rebel forces won backing by rival capitalist regimes from Qatar to Turkey, threatening Assad’s rule.
He remained in power only through the deployment of thousands of Hezbollah thugs, advisers and military aid from Tehran, and airpower from Moscow.
But Hezbollah, battered by Israel, and Moscow, suffering huge casualties in its war against Ukraine, could no longer come to Assad’s rescue.
For the first time in years, many are confident they can stand up for themselves. “If I’d spoken out before, Bashar al-Assad’s forces would have cut off my tongue,” Tawfiq Diam told BBC from the Eastern Ghouta suburb of Damascus Dec. 11.
The rebel forces broke open the cell doors in prisons in each city they took, releasing thousands, some who had been imprisoned for decades. But tens of thousands of people captured by the regime are still missing.
Mass burial sites are being uncovered. The U.S.-based Syrian Emergency Task Force told ABC News that it believes there are well over 100,000 bodies buried in just one of the dozens of sites.
‘Moderate’ Islamic rule?
Ahmed al-Sharaa, the head of Tahrir al-Sham, broke with Islamic State and al-Qaeda in 2016, saying they were too extreme. The group has governed Idlib province in northwest Syria since 2017.
While Tahrir al-Sham says its goal is to rule Syria under Sharia law, Sharaa says the rebels will respect the rights of Kurds, Alawites, Christians, Druze and other minority groups.
The rebels met with representatives of Christian communities. “Continue to live normally, you’re coming up to your Christmas holiday, nothing will change for you,” the rebels told Brother Georges Sabe, who took part in the meetings and reported on them, according to France 24.
Syrians of all religious beliefs and nationalities are watching to see if the rebels’ actions meet their words.
It’s not clear what relations the forces led by Tahrir al-Sham will have with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which holds about one-third of Syrian territory, carved out in the fight to defend the Kurds, an oppressed nationality. The SDF collaborated with Washington in defeating Islamic State forces. There are still some 900 U.S. troops based there.
The Ankara-created Syrian National Army with Turkish air support has pushed the SDF out of Manbij. For Ankara any advance for Kurdish autonomy in Syria is a threat to capitalist rule in Turkey, where millions of Kurds are also fighting for national rights.
Israel defends its borders
Given the history of Tahrir al-Sham and other Islamist rebel factions — including applauding the Oct. 7 pogrom — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not taking any chances.
Since Assad fled Dec. 8 the Israel Defense Forces carried out more than 450 airstrikes in Syria, destroying Syria’s navy, ammunition depots, radar systems, missiles, chemical weapons stores, dozens of its air bases and more, with very few human casualties.
As the Syrian army collapsed, its troops abandoned the 50-mile-long buffer zone along the Golan Heights that was part of a 1974 agreement between the Syrian and Israeli governments. Israeli troops moved in to take their place, including occupying the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. As the highest mountain in Syria this gives Israeli troops an overview that would aid in preventing any attack on Israel’s border.
Sharaa called on Israel to halt the attacks and to withdraw from the buffer zone. “We do not want any conflict, whether with Israel or anyone else,” he told the press Dec. 16.
In the wake of significant blows to Tehran and its proxies, the Israeli government is considering steps to put an end to Tehran’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons.
Doing so would strengthen Israel’s defense of the safety of a refuge for Jews. It would open more space for workers, working farmers and oppressed nationalities throughout the Middle East to come together to defend themselves against their capitalist rulers.