Amid daily U.S. airstrikes against hundreds of targets in Iran, answered by drone and missile attacks by Tehran against U.S. bases in the region, Washington and the Iranian regime are once again talking about a possible ceasefire, one to last 10 days.
Mediators from the governments of Pakistan, Qatar, Turkey and Egypt have been acting as conduits between the two sides. But another new ceasefire would likely be no more stable than the last one.
The Donald Trump administration is not looking to maintain an “endless war” with Tehran, but to bolster U.S. imperialism’s domination of the Middle East, establish a modus vivendi with Iran’s rulers and push back encroachments by its rivals, including Beijing.
Because of earlier blows to Iran’s air defenses, the U.S. forces can strike anywhere in the country at will. Tehran’s forces, though greatly weakened, have still damaged several U.S. military bases — killing at least two U.S. soldiers in Jordan July 18 — and destroyed infrastructure of U.S. allies, including a water desalination plant in Kuwait, and are still able to threaten ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the latest round of attacks, Tehran has struck targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Tehran was able to salvage munitions during the latest wars with Israel and Washington. The ballistic missiles it has used in recent attacks “seem faster and able to maneuver” in ways they couldn’t before, reflecting that its military is “adapting,” the Journal said, possibly with aid from Moscow.
Tehran insists it has the right to control and charge for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the latest war started at the end of February, more than 130 ships passed through the strait each day, some 20% of oil shipments worldwide. With the latest Iranian attacks on ships there, passage through the waterway has slowed to a trickle. Eight ships made it through July 16, a drop from 30 on a day the previous week.
Complicating Washington’s hope for stability for plunder and profit, the Houthis in Yemen have announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia-linked ships passing through the Red Sea strait of Bab el-Mandeb, which has been an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Like their patron in Tehran, the Houthis’ openly declared goal is to destroy Israel and eliminate the Jews.
Washington now has at least 50,000 troops in the Mideast. This includes 19 U.S. warships in the Arabian Sea, including two aircraft carriers and an amphibious assault ship with more than 1,000 Marines aboard, and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the area.
Despite this, its reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the reinstating of economic sanctions on Tehran, combined with the airstrikes, Washington has not been able to force the Iranian regime to allow free maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz or give in to other U.S. demands.
The U.S. rulers are not looking to protect the lives of Jews in Israel nor of the wide swath of working people in Iran opposed to the Tehran regime. Their objective is to convince the reactionary regime to agree to some measure of cooperation with U.S. imperialism to advance its interests in the region.
Israel prepares next steps
Israel is preparing for the next steps in its defensive war to prevent Tehran and its allies from advancing on their goal of the destruction of Israel, the only refuge from Jew-hatred and pogroms worldwide.
During the 12-day war between Israel and Tehran June 2025, Israel destroyed much of the regime’s capacity to advance toward the production of nuclear weapons. But the Iranian rulers have never given up their goal of destroying Israel — which they repeatedly call a “cancerous tumor” — and eliminating the Jews who live there.
The Wall Street Journal reported July 20 and 21 that pictures show Tehran has been building a new nuclear facility, underneath Pickaxe Mountain, putting thousands of centrifuges inside that can be used to enrich uranium.
A key question is what happened to the uranium enriched to 60% that Tehran had produced previously. Was it buried by bombing during the 2025 war or has it been moved? If Tehran is able to recover that material, it could speed up production of a bomb. Even one nuclear weapon in Tehran’s hands is a threat to the existence of Israel — home to nearly half the world’s Jews — and of a new Holocaust.
Destroying the Pickaxe Mountain facilities would not be so simple, likely requiring ground troops. Some of the complex is 300 to 450 feet deep beneath solid rock.
Since the recent step-up in fighting between Tehran and Washington, the Iranian regime has not launched new direct attacks on Israel, hoping to keep the government there from attacking, while Tehran prepares for future battles.
The Israeli government has made it clear to Tehran, as well as to Washington, that if Iran fires missiles at Israel, it’s prepared to strike back. “We are prepared for an immediate return to fighting and will act with great force against anyone who harms us,” Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir told the press July 17.